Weather forecasters predict active hurricane season

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins, Saturday, June 1 and runs through the end of November and storm forecasters at Colorado State University (CSU), the Weather Channel and Accuweather all have indicated the season could be explosive and a very active one.

The forecasters all agree that the signs continue to point to the hurricane season being worse than last year and having the potential to rank as one of the most active in history.

The CSU tropical forecaster team predicts 23 storms of which 11 will become hurricanes with five reaching Category 5 status or stronger.

The Accuweather team predicts between 20-25 named storms including 8-12 hurricanes with four to seven developing into major hurricanes and four to six storms having a direct impact on the United States.

“The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to feature well above the historical average number of tropical storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes and direct U.S. impacts,” Accuweather lead hurricane forecaster Alex DaSilva said.

The forecasters are basing their predictions on two major factors including already warm waters in most of the Atlantic Ocean and the presence of La Nina in the Pacific Ocean. Both factors usually enhance the development of storms.

According to Accuweather, warm water is the fuel for tropical systems, and there is plenty of warm water for underdeveloped systems to tap into and grow stronger.

University of Miami tropical scientists with the Weather Channel said March was the 12th month in a row that water temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean were record warm for that time of the year.

The other factor leading to a higher than normal storm prediction involves a vanishing El Niño in the Pacific Ocean and being rapidly replaced by La Niña.

When El Niño is in affect the upper westerly winds tend to shave off the tops of developing storms, thus reducing hurricane development.

However, when La Niña takes control the winds have less of a shearing affect and makes for a better block for developing tropical storms and hurricanes.

The hurricane forecasters feel that not only more storms or hurricanes will occur this year, but also there is a bigger threat in the Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean Sea.

“The Texas coast, Florida Panhandle, South Florida and the Carolinas are at the higher-than-average risk of direct impacts this season,” DaSilva said. “All residents and interests along the U.S. coast, including Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, should have a hurricane plan in place and always be fully prepared for a direct impact.”

Generally, tropical storm predictors select 21 names for a hurricane season and this year because the storms may exceed the names assigned the Greek alphabet could be needed for further naming of storms.

The 2024 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone names include: Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Francine, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Milton, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sara, Tony, Valerie and William.